During one of his speeches, Russian leader Vladimir Putin made it clear to the world that he intends to use Russia’s nuclear arsenal if anyone gets in his way. Many would argue that the risk of nuclear war has never left us, but Putin certainly makes it a pronounced threat.
But while Russia has flexed its nuclear muscles, it has only ever used traditional military weapons to execute its operations. So far, they have not engaged their nuclear arms in battle. What makes the present situation different from unrest in the past? And does the Ukraine invasion really warrant the use of nuclear arms? Is the probability of nuclear war in 2022 high?
How possible is the risk of nuclear war?
Like any other political event, it is easy for conflicts to escalate quickly. Depending on what happens in a few hours and days, the nuclear war scenario relies on the actions of a few.
Some experts believe that the probability of a nuclear war is slim. For instance, Mattew Bunn, the former adviser to Bill Clinton’s Office of Science and Technology Policy, said that since the US and NATO will not send troops to Ukraine, there is little worry about Russia using its arms.
Paul Hare, a lecturer of global studies at Boston University, agrees. He believes that Putin’s objective is to restore imperial Russia and “swallow Ukraine.” In addition, he believes that Putin’s message is to deter the West from intervention.
However, because of its failing tactics against Ukraine and the global reactions to its invasion, some speculate that Russia might show more force. After all, nuclear arms are more often used to intimidate leaders. But due to global norms and treaties, any country that will use nuclear arms will surely become a pariah state.
How many nuclear weapons does Russia have?
According to Hans Kristensen, the director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, Russia has about 6,600 nuclear arms. This is large enough to kill billions of people.
When it first invaded Ukraine, Kristensen said that most of these weapons were in reserves. Only about 1,600 of these warheads are ready to be deployed as missiles or bombs.
To compare numbers, the United States has about 5,500 weapons. Since the end of the Cold War, the number of nukes held by countries dropped to 80 percent. This is largely thanks to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, wherein countries pledged to destroy existing nuclear weapons.
However, since Putin has expressed his intent to use nuclear arms, it might be time for leaders to examine the treaty again.
Why we shouldn’t fall into the risk of nuclear war again
No matter what, though, experts know that the world should not fall at the risk of nuclear war again. As the world has seen from past events, the effects of nuclear war on humans last for generations.
The first cause for concern is exposure to radiation. Different exposure levels to radiation can cause burns and malignant cancer when in contact with human skin. Also, victims of nuclear weapons suffer from health injuries that they live with for the rest of their lives.
That’s not all. Even today, areas where nuclear blasts have occurred are laden with radioactive material. The result is a wasteland where few healthy signs of life are present.
Nobody knows for sure how long it would take for the earth to recover from nuclear war. One thing is for certain: should Russia choose to engage its arms, the effects of nuclear war will be devastating for the entire planet.
