Scientists May Soon Detect Earthquakes Two Days Before They Strike

There are many ways that Earth hints an earthquake is coming. Sometimes it’s through the groundwater level. In the past, scientists have used radon to predict seismic movement. But none of these give us an accurate picture of earthquakes’ strength. Nor do they tell us how long it will last and where it will strike. If only there was a method to predict earthquakes with 80% accuracy, then preparedness and response will be a lot more efficient.

It used to seem impossible; after all, studying earthquakes was a complicated puzzle confusing scientists for decades. That is – until now. Recently, Israeli scientists have discovered a way to predict earthquakes with 80% accuracy, 48 hours before they strike. A joint team from Ariel University and the Center for Research and Development Eastern Branch made the discovery. 

Their peer-reviewed study, which detailed how the system works, was published in the science journal Remote Sensing in May. With the effects of earthquakes on human ecosystems, this discovery may give humans the advantage we need. 

How do researchers predict earthquakes with 80% accuracy

Earthquakes, like many seismic events, are quite hard to predict. It’s difficult to read the Earth’s movements. And most scientists struggle to read signals in time to send out warnings. 

Granted, there are various ways that scientists currently use to predict quakes. But these don’t tell us how long, how strong, and where these tremors will be felt. In short, though predicting earthquakes is essential, we don’t have a great way of doing it yet. 

So, a system that predicts earthquakes with 80% accuracy 48 hours before strikes can help us greatly.

But Israelian researchers have used an unlikely method to trace tremors and quakes: the sky. Or specifically, the ionosphere. This is the part of the sky that meets the vacuum of space. 

The scientists used a GPS map of the ionosphere’s total electron content. They combined this with their machine learning techniques on a support vector machine algorithm. Using these two, the researchers calculated the electron charge density of the ionosphere. 

Using this method, scientists could predict major earthquakes in the last 20 years. They classified “major” as an event with an Mw of 6 or higher on the Moment magnitude scale. This discovery proved that their systems predict earthquakes with 80% accuracy. 

They also managed to predict with 87.5% accuracy areas where the quakes will not hit. 

The study was made by Dr. Yuval Reuvani, Dr. Li-Ad Gotlieb, Dr. Nimrod Imbar, and graduate student Said Asali. The study was funded by Israel’s Energy Ministry and the Israel Science Foundation.

How can this be applied?

Earthquakes carry with them a slew of other risks. So it’s important that this discovery can be used in real life. 

With the new tech, countries near the Rim Of Fire may have a better chance of bracing for quakes. Major earthquakes can cause massive destruction to landscapes and communities. This is especially true for individuals living in mountains and other sloped areas. Things get even more dangerous in cities, where people are packed tightly in high-rise buildings. 

Worse, aftershocks can trigger tsunami waves, making them dangerous for coastal provinces. Without a solid technology to predict quakes, a robust natural disaster could wipe out entire cities. And often, it takes years to recover from natural disasters. 

Furthermore, some studies point out that climate change can increase the likelihood of earthquakes. With rising temperatures, it’s not hard to trigger earthquake faults with rising sea levels. Since temperatures have tipped nature’s balance, there’s no telling which way the causes of earthquakes can come from. 

So, a system that predicts earthquakes with 80% accuracy 48 hours before is advantageous, especially if we’re all waiting for the big one. Scientists may soon detect earthquakes two days before they strike.

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