Could We Save Earth From A Devastating Don’t Look Up Asteroid?

Two American astrophysicists predict that technology is ready to stop an asteroid from colliding with Earth.

What will happen if a ten km-wide asteroid or comet is about to collide with the Earth, with an impending disaster just six months away? This was the setting in the recent Netflix science fiction film “Don’t Look Up.” The movie has sparked curiosity to many if we have the technology to avert the catastrophe.

A new research says that Earth could save itself from a threat with just a short window to act.

“We prove that humanity has passed a technological threshold to prevent us from going the way of the dinosaurs,” said Philip Lubin and Alex Cohen at the University of California Santa Barbara.

Their paper recently posted on Arxiv claims that mitigation is possible. It uses existing technology, even with the short period of six months warning. They added that the dinosaurs ‘never took a physics class and failed to support the planetary defense.’

The duo looks at several different methods developed to deflect a comet. But they focus primarily on various explosive penetrators for the “Pulverize It” (PI) method. The most effective way of pulverizing is using small nuclear explosive devices (NED) in the penetrators. It could be launched with one of two super-rockets currently in development. NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) or SpaceX’s Starship vehicle are expected to have their first test flights to space in the coming months.

Could this destroy an asteroid akin to the one depicted in Don’t Look Up? The method would not entirely obliterate an asteroid, but it could vaporize some surfaces. Then, it would create an explosive thrust and a change in velocity in response. As a result, this would change the asteroid’s path and hopefully divert it from hitting the Earth.

The availability of the technology is not a controversial opinion. Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart helped establish the asteroid research organization B612. Schweickart has explained that the technology needed to divert an asteroid already exists.

“We do not have to invest in a big tech development program to deflect an asteroid that would pose a disastrous impact,” Schweickart said.

But that is subject to change. In 2021, NASA launched the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), the first-ever planetary defense test project. It will show that an unmanned spacecraft can navigate and perform a kinetic impact on a small target asteroid. Also, this will test if this is a feasible technique to block a dangerous asteroid.

The paper by Lubin and Cohen shows that a threat of this scale colliding the Earth at a closing speed of 40 km per second would have an impact energy of roughly 300 Teratons (TNT). It’s about 40 thousand times larger than the current combined nuclear arsenal of the entire world.

They said the purpose of their research was to show that even in extreme short-term warning cases, we should have the ability to respond. However, we could react properly only if we prepared. That’s why Schweickart and B612 have repeatedly and loudly advocated.

While the numbers may seem scary, it is not outside the scope of possibility even in this era of human technological development, Lubin and Cohen said. Furthermore, this gives us hope that a robust planetary defense system is possible. It is viable for even short notice existential threats outlined in their paper. They concluded that we would never be caught in this situation but better be ready than dead.

You can watch Don’t Look Up on Netflix. And for other news, read more here at Owner’s Mag!